Web-based surveillance of respiratory infection outbreaks: retrospective analysis of Italian COVID-19 epidemic waves using Google Trends.

Introduction: Large-scale diagnostic testing has been proven insufficient to promptly monitor the spread of the Coronavirus disease 2019. Electronic resources may provide better insight into the early detection of epidemics. We aimed to retrospectively explore whether the Google search volume has been useful in detecting Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus outbreaks early compared to the swab-based surveillance system. Methods: The Google Trends website was used by applying the research to three Italian regions (Lombardy, Marche, and Sicily), covering 16 million Italian citizens. An autoregressive-moving-average model was fitted, and residual charts were plotted to detect outliers in weekly searches of five keywords. Signals that occurred during periods labelled as free from epidemics were used to measure Positive Predictive Values and False Negative Rates in anticipating the epidemic wave occurrence. Results: Signals from "fever," "cough," and "sore throat" showed better performance than those from "loss of smell" and "loss of taste." More than 80% of true epidemic waves were detected early by the occurrence of at least an outlier signal in Lombardy, although this implies a 20% false alarm signals. Performance was poorer for Sicily and Marche. Conclusion: Monitoring the volume of Google searches can be a valuable tool for early detection of respiratory infectious disease outbreaks, particularly in areas with high access to home internet. The inclusion of web-based syndromic keywords is promising as it could facilitate the containment of COVID-19 and perhaps other unknown infectious diseases in the future.

Safety Profile and Outcomes of Early COVID-19 Treatments in Immunocompromised Patients: A Single-Centre Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Early treatment with remdesivir (RMD) or monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) could be a valuable tool in patients at risk of severe COVID-19 with unsatisfactory responses to vaccination. We aim to assess the safety and clinical outcomes of these treatments among immunocompromised subjects. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed all nonhospitalized patients who received an early treatment with RMD or mAbs for COVID-19, from 25 November 2021 to 25 January 2022, in a large tertiary hospital. Outcomes included frequency of adverse drug reaction (ADR), duration of symptoms and molecular swab positivity, emergency department access, hospital or intensive care unit admission, and mortality in the 14 days following treatment administration. RESULTS: Early treatments were administered to 143 patients, 106/143 (74.1%) immunocompromised, including 41 solid organ and 6 hematopoietic stem cell transplant recipients. Overall, 23/143 (16.1%) subjects reported ADRs. Median time from treatment start to SARS-CoV-2 nasopharyngeal swab negativity and symptom resolution was 10 (IQR 6-16) and 2.5 days (IQR 1.0-6.0), respectively, without differences between immunocompromised and nonimmunocompromised patients. In the 14 days after treatment administration, 5/143 patients (3.5%) were hospitalized and one died as a result of causes related to COVID-19, all of them were immunocompromised. CONCLUSIONS: RMD and mAbs have minimal ADRs and favourable outcomes in immunocompromised patients.

Global ecological analysis of COVID-19 mortality and comparison between "the East" and "the West".

Although SARS-CoV-2 was first reported in China and neighbouring countries, the pandemic quickly spread around the globe. This paper explores national drivers of the pandemic and the radically different epidemiology and response in the West and in the East. We studied coronavirus disease (COVID-19) mortality until 31st December 2020, using an ecological study design, considering baseline characteristics and responses that might account for the uneven impact of the pandemic. A multivariable regression model was developed to explore key determinants. Key variables in the West were contrasted with those in the East, and speed of response was examined. Worldwide, 2.24 million COVID-19 deaths were documented in 2020. Western countries reported a median mortality 114 times that of the East (684 vs. 6.0 per million). Significant correlates of mortality in countries with at least 1 million population were median age, obesity prevalence, and democracy index; political stability and experience of SARS in 2002-2003 were protective; health system variables and income inequality were not associated. Outputs of the model were consistent when adjusted for stringency index, timeliness of stay-at-home requirements, and geographical autocorrelation. The West experiences a much higher COVID-19 mortality than the East. Despite structural advantages in the West, delays in national responses early on resulted in a loss of control over the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Although the early success of the East was sustained in the second half of 2020, the region remains extremely vulnerable to COVID-19 until enough people are immunized.

Mini Review Immunological Consequences of Immunization With COVID-19 mRNA Vaccines: Preliminary Results.

Background: BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 are the two recently approved mRNA-based vaccines against COVID-19 which has shown excellent safety and efficacy. Preliminary data about specific and neutralizing antibodies is available covering the first 100 days after vaccination. Methods: We reviewed all the publications regarding the immunologic consequences of BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 vaccination. A summary of specific antibodies concentration and neutralizing antibodies titers elicited by each vaccine is provided. Results: BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 displayed a reassuring safety and efficacy profile, with the latter above 94%. They can elicit specific antibodies titers and neutralizing antibodies concentrations that are far superior from those observed among COVID-19 human convalescent serum, across a wide span of age, for at least 100 days after vaccination. Moreover, the vaccine-induced T cellular response is oriented toward a TH1 response and no evidence of vaccine-enhanced disease have been reported. Discussion: BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 can elicit specific antibodies titers and neutralizing antibodies concentrations above those observed among COVID-19 human convalescent serum in the first 100 days after vaccination. Data about vaccine efficacy in those with previous COVID-19 or immunocompromised is still limited.

Preliminary observations on IGRA testing for TB infection in patients with severe COVID-19 eligible for immunosuppressive therapy.

COVID-19, the novel coronavirus pandemic, has already spread around the globe affecting more than 18 million people. As previously observed with other coronaviruses, SARS-CoV-2 deeply dysregulate the immune system eliciting respiratory failure and a state of systemic hyperinflammation in severely ill individuals. Immunotherapy is often used to downgrade the detrimental effects of the disease sustained by high-level of cytokines. Those treatments, however, are known to undermine patients' ability to contain tuberculosis (TB) infection. This study aims to describe interferon-γ release assay (IGRA) results in severe COVID-19 patients eligible for immunosuppressive treatment. Aggregate data were gathered from five hospitals in Milan, Italy, from March 1 to May 15, 2020 and retrospectively analyses. Results were summarized using absolute frequencies and percentages and compared using a two-sided Chi-squared test. Overall, 462 COVID-19 patients were eligible for immunosuppressive therapy, among which 335 were tested using IGRA testing. More than one-third of them (122/335; 36.4%) had an indeterminate IGRA result because of insufficient immune response to mitogen control, 19 (5.7%) tested positive and 194 (57.9) negative. The majority of patients with lymphocytopenia (i.e., total lymphocyte count [TLC] below 1000 cells/mm3) had indeterminate IGRAs (81/155; 52.3%). The proportion becomes even higher in patients with severe lymphocytopenia (i.e., TLC<500 cells/mm3) (36/57; 63%). Our results suggest a possible negative impact of COVID-19 related immune dysregulation on TB infection assessment and management. Close monitoring of individuals with or without retesting of individuals with indeterminate IGRAs and further basic science investigations should to be sought to better comprehend their implication on TB epidemiology.

The neglected role of Faith-based Organizations in prevention and control of COVID-19 in Africa.

The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed health system weaknesses of economically wealthy countries with advanced technologies. COVID-19 is now moving fast across Africa where small outbreaks have been reported so far. There is a concern that with the winter transmission will grow rapidly. Despite efforts of African Governments to promptly establish mitigating measures, rural areas, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, risk being neglected. In those settings, faith-based and other non-governmental organizations, if properly equipped and supported, can play a crucial role in slowing the spread of COVID-19. We describe our experience in two rural health facilities in eSwatini and Ethiopia highlighting the struggle towards preparedness and the urgency of international support to help prevent a major public health disaster.

The COVID-19 pandemic preparedness ... or lack thereof: from China to Italy.

COVID-19, that emerged in December 2019 in the city of Wuhan, China and is caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has rapidly evolved into a pandemic. Italy has become one of the largest epicentres outside Asia, accounting now for at least 80,539 infections (cumulative incidence of 95.9/100,000) and 8,165 deaths (case fatality rate 10.1%). It has seriously affected people above the age of 60 years. The International Health Regulations (IHR) revised in 2005 bind governments to disclose vital information regarding the identification and detection of new disease outbreaks regardless of its causative agent. In contrast to the previous SARS epidemic, China timely informed the world about the onset of a new outbreak. It also soon disclosed the clinical characteristics of patients with COVID-19. Unfortunately, despite the fast recognition of the Chinese epidemic, the application of the 2005 IHR was not followed by an effective response in every country and most health authorities failed to rapidly perceive the threat posed by COVID-19. To further complicate matters, IHR implementation, which relies primarily on self-reporting data rather than on an external review mechanism, was limited in speed and further hindered by high costs. The response in Italy suffered from several limitations within the health system and services. The action against this threat must instead be quick, firm and at the highest trans-national level. The solution lies in further strengthening countries' preparedness through a clear political commitment, mobilization of proper resources and implementation of a strict surveillance and monitoring process.